Chance operations & probability theory

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Example: What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads?
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'''Example: What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads?'''
Total number of states in the ensemble = 2 (heads and tails)
Total number of states in the ensemble = 2 (heads and tails)
   
   
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Example: What is the probability of drawing an ace of spades from a shuffled deck of cards?
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'''Example: What is the probability of drawing an ace of spades from a shuffled deck of cards?'''
Total number of states in the ensemble = 52 (total number of cards in the deck)
Total number of states in the ensemble = 52 (total number of cards in the deck)
   
   
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Example: What is the probability of drawing an ace from a shuffled deck of cards?
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'''Example: What is the probability of drawing an ace from a shuffled deck of cards?'''
Total number of states in the ensemble = 52 (total number of cards in the deck)
Total number of states in the ensemble = 52 (total number of cards in the deck)
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Example: What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting 4 heads in a row?
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'''Example: What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting 4 heads in a row?'''
Probability of the individual event = .5
Probability of the individual event = .5
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Example: What is the probability of drawing 4 aces from a shuffled deck of cards?
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'''Example: What is the probability of drawing 4 aces from a shuffled deck of cards?'''
For the first card -
For the first card -
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;">Pinball Example</SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;"><u>Pinball Example</u></SPAN>
In this example a ball is dropped on the top pin of a triangular arrangement of pins. The ball ends up exiting in one of several columns. The probability that a ball will end up in a given column is a function of the number of paths that lead to that column.
In this example a ball is dropped on the top pin of a triangular arrangement of pins. The ball ends up exiting in one of several columns. The probability that a ball will end up in a given column is a function of the number of paths that lead to that column.
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;">Pascal's Triangle</SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;"><u>Pascal's Triangle</u></SPAN>
This geometric arrangement of numbers was devised by Blaise Pascal to demonstrate and calculate the probability of a proposition that is the combination of binary events.  To construct Pascal's Triangle each number is the sum of the 2 numbers in the line above.  The resulting numbers can be viewed as the expected statistical distribution.  For example, flipping 3 coins there is only one way to get all heads or all tails, but 3 ways to get 1 tail and 2 heads (THH, HTH, HHT), and 3 ways to get 1 head and 2 tails.  
This geometric arrangement of numbers was devised by Blaise Pascal to demonstrate and calculate the probability of a proposition that is the combination of binary events.  To construct Pascal's Triangle each number is the sum of the 2 numbers in the line above.  The resulting numbers can be viewed as the expected statistical distribution.  For example, flipping 3 coins there is only one way to get all heads or all tails, but 3 ways to get 1 tail and 2 heads (THH, HTH, HHT), and 3 ways to get 1 head and 2 tails.  
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;">Uniform Distributions </SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;"><u>Uniform Distributions</u></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;">The Normal or Gaussian Distribution </SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;"><u>The Normal or Gaussian Distribution</u></SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;">The Law of Large Numbers </SPAN>
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<SPAN STYLE="font-size: larger;"><u>The Law of Large Numbers</u></SPAN>

Revision as of 08:41, 20 September 2008

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